set-18deep-diveeconomylevelingrollingintermediate

TL;DR

The "4-cost econ" gameplan is the standard TFT flex archetype: preserve HP through stages 2–3, stack gold to 50 for max interest, power-level to 8 on stage 4-1 or 4-2, and roll down 30–50 gold to 2-star a 4-cost carry plus frontline. The entire plan hinges on a single mechanic: level 8 shop odds triple your 4-cost hit rate compared to level 7 (10% → 30%), so whoever arrives at level 8 first with enough gold to roll hits their spike first. The rest of the plan — stage 2 econ pacing, the "make 10, then 20, then 50" rhythm, health-trading discipline, the 35-gold rolldown floor — all services that single breakpoint.

Key Takeaways

  • Level 8 is the breakpoint. 4-cost odds jump from 10% at level 7 to 30% at level 8 (LoL Wiki TFT Champion page). That's a 3× increase — the single biggest probability jump in the shop odds table.
  • Interest caps at +5 gold (at 50 gold held). The "make 10, then 20, then 50 as quickly as possible" rhythm (Mortdog via Broseph) is the compound-growth engine of the game.
  • Roll down at 4-2 with 30–50 gold. This is the canonical timing. Earlier (4-1) if contested; later (4-3+) loses pool priority to opponents.
  • Minimum rolldown floor: 35 gold (VoidS1n). Below that, you run out of rolls before you hit — the worst outcome.
  • HP is a resource, not a fail state. High-elo players trade HP for interest deliberately, sitting at 40–60 HP at 4-2 to arrive with more gold. "30 HP is a signal to commit, not a signal to stop" (Boosteria).
  • Your stage 2 board is stage 3's foundation. Losing interest thresholds early compounds to stage 5 disasters. Every missed 10-gold breakpoint echoes.
  • Contested 4-costs change everything. Only 10 copies exist per 4-cost unit (pool sizes). Two contestors on one unit is usually fine; three means someone 8ths.
  • Fast-8 isn't universal. Reroll comps, hyper-roll openers, and fast-9 lines all have different gameplans. The flex/4-cost plan is the default — know when to deviate.

The shop odds table — the data that drives the whole plan

Every decision in this gameplan is downstream of this table. Shop odds for Set 18 (Enchanted Wilds), patch 18.1 (current as of September 2026):

Level 1-cost 2-cost 3-cost 4-cost 5-cost
4 55% 30% 15% 0% 0%
5 45% 33% 20% 2% 0%
6 30% 40% 25% 5% 0%
7 16% 30% 43% 10% 1%
8 15% 20% 32% 30% 3%
9 10% 17% 25% 33% 15%
10 5% 10% 20% 40% 25%
11 1% 2% 12% 50% 35%

Sources: League of Legends Wiki — TFT Champion (primary, authoritative), Redeemer TFT shop odds (cross-reference), MetaTFT shop odds table (live). Some fan sites still show stale prior-set numbers — always verify against the Wiki.

What the table actually means

  • Level 7 → 8: 4-cost odds triple (10% → 30%). This is the single biggest probability jump in the entire table — and the mechanical reason fast-8 is the canonical spike.
  • Level 8 → 9: 4-cost odds barely move (30% → 33%). The real value of pushing 9 is 5-cost access (3% → 15%, a 5× jump).
  • Level 6 → 7: 3-cost odds peak at 43%. This is why 3-cost reroll comps sit at level 7 and don't push further.
  • 3-cost odds are still strong at level 8 (32%). 3-cost reroll on 7 or 8, never past.

Every 4-cost roll you make at level 7 is 3× less efficient than the same roll at level 8. Getting to level 8 before your rolldown is a massive multiplier on every single gold you spend rolling.

Interest: the compounding engine

The interest formula in TFT is simple and brutal: +1 gold per 10 gold held, capped at +5 gold at 50 gold (LoL Wiki). That cap matters more than it sounds. It means:

  • Holding 50 gold generates +5 per round
  • Holding 100 gold still generates only +5 per round
  • Every gold above 50 is earning zero additional interest

This creates the "50-gold ceiling" — past it, you want to spend gold on levels or rolls, not bank more. Mortdog's canonical econ framing (via the Broseph summary): "Make 10, then 20, then 50 as quickly as you can. After that, spend."

Interest breakpoints matter compoundingly

Here's the subtle point: missing a 10-gold breakpoint on stage 2-5 isn't a 1-gold loss. It's a 1-gold loss per round for the rest of the game until you catch up. Boosteria puts it directly: "a missed 10-gold breakpoint in Stage 2 can echo all the way into Stage 5." If you miss +1 interest for 15 rounds, that's 15 gold, which is an entire level-up or three rolls at your 4-2 spike.

This is the mechanical reason "don't break a streak for a unit that doesn't matter" is a real rule, not just a slogan.

Why 4-2 is the canonical rolldown

Liquipedia defines fast 8 as "going for level 8 as quickly and safely as possible so you can access level 8 roll odds which allow for higher chance of getting 4-cost units" (glossary). The question is when — and the answer almost always lands on round 4-1 or 4-2.

The interest math

Under the standard curve, you'll reach stage 4 sitting on 50+ gold after a few rounds of max interest. At 4-1, you have the option to:

  • Level to 8 (each 4-gold XP buy covers 4 of the 60 XP needed to go from 7 to 8 — you won't drift there on passive XP alone, so either drip XP purchases through stage 3 or expect the level itself to eat 20–30 gold of your stage-4 bank)
  • Roll down with the gold remaining

Gamepur's fast-8 guide describes the baseline: "reach level 7 by round 4-1 and power level to 8 as early as round 4-3, with some gold left over to allow you to finally roll down." The faster you arrive with 30+ gold in the bank, the more shops you get at the 30% odds.

The HP tradeoff

The cost of fast-8 is that stage 3 is played under-leveled (you're at level 6 or 7 with a thin 4-unit 2-star board while opponents push trait unlocks at level 7+). You lose more rounds and bleed 10–30 HP across stage 3. The tradeoff is:

  • Fast-8: arrive at 8 first, roll first, 2-star your 4-cost before anyone else
  • Slow-8: arrive at 8 later with more gold, slightly lower hit ceiling but more rolls to convert

VoidS1n's stage 4 guide gives the operational test: "if you have over 35 gold to roll after leveling to level 8/9, especially if you're low HP, you should level and roll." Below 35 gold, you don't have enough rolls to realistically hit — and if you hit below that floor, you've locked yourself into a forced second roll down later with even less cushion.

Stage-by-stage gameplan

This is the standard curve for a flex / 4-cost comp. Numbers are benchmarks, not hard rules — lobby strength, contest, and HP all shift them.

Early stage 2 (2-1 through 2-4, the carousel): the opener

  • Don't full-open. Skip augment combat on 2-1 unless you're clearly going to lose-streak anyway.
  • Buy strong 2-stars whenever they appear — see dpei's econ loop breakdown on why stage 2's five free shops are ~10 gold of value you can't afford to waste.
  • Aim to hit 10 gold by the stage-2 carousel (2-4). This is the first interest breakpoint and the foundation of the "make 10, then 20, then 50" rhythm.
  • Level 4 on 2-1 is the default, level 5 on 2-5 if you're pushing for a stage-2 win streak.

Late stage 2 into stage 3 (2-5 through 3-2): win-streak or controlled loss

  • Streak. Win-streak if you can; controlled lose-streak if your opener is weak. Both are fine; neither means "sit at 20 gold doing nothing."
  • Target: 20 gold heading into 3-1. Second interest breakpoint.
  • Level 6 on 3-2. This is standard timing. Most flex comps don't push level 7 yet.
  • Start thinking about item direction. Don't slam items you don't need — per dpei's item economy rule, item flexibility at 4-2 is worth more than a premature item slam at 3-2.

Late stage 3 (3-3 through 4-1): build toward the spike

  • Level 7 on 3-5 or 4-1. Standard. This is when 4-costs first appear in shops at 10%.
  • Bank toward 50 gold by 4-1. Max interest active.
  • HP target: 60–85 at 4-1. Above this range, you're playing too safe and could have pushed econ more aggressively; below, you're in forced-roll territory on 4-2.
  • Identify your 4-cost target. By 3-5, scout the lobby: which 4-cost carry is most open? Which is contested? Your plan at level 8 depends on which units are realistic to 2-star.
  • Don't slam items yet unless the slam wins you this specific fight. See dpei's strongest-board video on the "if you don't need to slam, don't slam" rule.

Stage 4-1 / 4-2: the rolldown

This is the spike. The entire plan converges here.

  • Level to 8 at 4-1 (if you have the gold to spare) or 4-2 (more common — at 60 XP for the level, expect to buy a real chunk of it rather than drift there passively).

  • Roll with 30–50 gold remaining. Below 35, you don't have enough rolls; above 50, you're over-saving.

  • Priority order when rolling:

    1. 2-star your primary 4-cost carry
    2. 2-star your main tank
    3. Complete utility traits (look for the 2-star of whichever 4-cost closes your key trait breakpoint)
    4. Fill in the 5th and 6th units with whatever appears

  • If contested: roll at 4-1 instead of 4-2. VoidS1n's contested rule: "you would roll most of your gold at 4-1 instead of 4-2 to gain access to these units before your contesters." The extra interest tick isn't worth letting a contestor take all 10 copies of your carry.

  • Slam items. This is the moment — components held from stage 2-3 all convert to completed BiS items now. Critical items: carry's 3 items + 2-3 tank items + any Shred/Sunder/Anti-Heal utility.

Stage 4-3 through 4-7: stabilize and recover

"Stabilize" means: 2-star carry + 2-star frontline + completed carry items + enough HP to survive. Mobalytics defines it as the transition point where you stop panic-rolling and start rebuilding gold.

  • Re-bank toward 30–50 gold for a second spike at 5-1.
  • Position correctly. You're now on your real board — positioning matters disproportionately. Carry in the safe corner, tank up front, CC tank positioned to lock the enemy main tank.
  • Don't push 9 yet unless you have strong board and high HP.

Stage 5-1: fast-9 decision point

This is where the gameplan branches.

  • Push 9 if: HP > 60, 2-star core complete, lobby isn't out-capping you. Level 9 opens the 5-cost pool at 15% (up from 3% at level 8, a 5× jump) — this is the actual value of fast-9, not the marginal 3% gain in 4-cost odds. Game-winners like legendary carries and premier frontline tanks appear here. See dpei's highroll conversion video on why pushing for 5-costs is the correct move once your current board is stable.
  • Stay at 8 and 3-star if: you have specific 4-cost 3-star targets (Level 8 is optimal for 4-cost reroll). Rare for pure flex comps.
  • Don't push 9 if: HP < 40, your board is still missing a 2-star piece. Fix the board first.

HP and gold rolling heuristics

The community has converged on a few numeric heuristics. None of them are absolute rules — they're decision filters.

The 50 HP / 30 HP split

  • Above 50 HP with a playable board: prioritize econ, hit interest breakpoints, delay the rolldown one round if it helps
  • 30–50 HP: this is the committed range. Roll at your canonical spike round (4-2, 5-1) with no hesitation
  • Below 30 HP: you're in late-game forced-roll territory. Spend all your gold, either rolling or leveling-and-rolling. The "30 HP rule" from Boosteria is a signal to commit, not to stop — high-elo players deliberately sit at 30-40 HP while stacking gold, then spike hard

The 35 gold minimum

Across sources, 35 gold is the community-cited minimum for a realistic rolldown at level 8. Below that:

  • You get 3-4 rolls max (at 2g each, 6-8 total)
  • Base shop odds at level 8 give ~1 4-cost per shop (any 4-cost), and you need a specific unit
  • You're likely to bleed out without hitting

If you arrive at your rolldown round with < 35 gold, either skip the rolldown and hold for a 5-1 spike instead, or roll and accept that you're all-in.

The contest multiplier

Contest changes every math above. With 10 copies of each 4-cost in the pool:

  • Uncontested: you have the full 10 copies available. Normal math applies.
  • 1 contestor (someone else 2-starring the same unit): ~5 copies each realistic. Still workable with a standard rolldown.
  • 2+ contestors: pool is effectively emptied. Pivot to a different 4-cost carry or don't force the comp.

Always scout stage 3-5 before committing to the rolldown target. Pivot candidates should be identified by 4-1 at the latest.

Augment interactions

The augment slot at 2-1, 3-2, and 4-2 can amplify or break the plan. General shape:

  • Tempo augments at 2-1 (free units, immediate board strength): straightforward. They win early rounds and preserve HP, feeding the econ loop. Fast-8 friendly.
  • Gold augments (the 2-1 income family — augments that pay out for holding or generating gold): can accelerate the "make 50 gold" curve. Fast-8 staple.
  • XP augments (Level Up, other buy-XP econ augments): elite fit for fast-8 and fast-9. Level Up specifically grants bonus XP on every XP buy, directly discounting the 60 XP climb to level 8.
  • Combat augments at 4-2 (Lucky Gloves, itemization and hero-specific augments): fine when your 2-1 and 3-2 were econ. Don't stack three combat augments when you're fast-8 flexing — you'll lack the gold to actually roll.

See live augment tiers at MetaTFT and Mobalytics for current patch specifics.

When fast-8 is the wrong plan

The 4-cost flex gameplan isn't universal. Know when it's wrong:

Reroll comps (1-cost or 3-cost carries)

A reroll comp sits at level 6 or 7 and hyper-rolls down to 0-10 gold, chasing a 3-star low-cost carry. The goals are opposite to fast-8:

  • Level 6-7 is correct (3-cost odds peak at level 7)
  • Spike is earlier (stage 3-5 or 4-1)
  • You want low HP on the rolldown (forcing the commit)
  • Endgame is the 3-star itself, not a 5-cost

Bunnymuffins' leveling guide breaks down the timing: "1-cost rerollers tend to spike at 3-1, 3-5, and 4-1. 2-cost rerollers tend to spike at 3-2, 4-1, and 4-5." Completely different rhythm.

Fast-9 flex

Fast-9 extends the plan: arrive at 8, stabilize lightly, push 9 immediately on 5-1 or even 4-7. Liquipedia defines it as "same as fast 8 but for level 9, usually played when you have a strong level 8 board."

The real value of fast-9 isn't the 4-cost odds — those only go from 30% to 33%. It's 5-cost odds jumping from 3% to 15%, a 5× increase. That's the mechanical reason fast-9 is worth the HP commitment: you suddenly have realistic odds of hitting game-winning 5-costs you couldn't touch at level 8.

The cost: extreme HP commitment. You need > 75 HP at 4-1 and a hittable 2-star level-8 board to make fast-9 realistic.

Forced comps

If you've committed to a specific forced comp (see how to force a comp), the gameplan is usually lose-streak control + a heavy 3-5 or 4-2 rolldown on your specific carry — not generic flex-style saving. Forcing overrides the flex gameplan.

Common mistakes

  1. Rolling at 7 for 4-costs. Level 7 has 10% 4-cost odds vs level 8's 30%. Every roll at 7 is 3× less efficient. If you're rolling at 7, you should have a specific 3-cost or tank target — not a 4-cost.
  2. Sitting on 60+ gold at 4-2. Past 50, interest is capped. Every extra 10 gold you hoard is pure waste. Roll or level.
  3. Slamming items on stage 3 for the endgame carry. Your items should serve your current board, per dpei's closest-board rule. The 4-cost endgame carry doesn't exist yet — build for stabilization.
  4. Breaking a streak for a marginal interest tick. +1 gold from hitting a breakpoint is less than +1 win + +1 streak + preserved HP. Streak wins over interest until you're at 50.
  5. Forcing through contested 4-costs. If 2+ opponents are on your carry, the pool is empty. Pivot on 3-5 or 4-1, not 4-3 when you've already burned 30 gold.
  6. Panic-rolling under 30 HP. Random rolls below 30 HP are how you die at 4-5 without spiking. Either commit with a plan (specific units, specific leverage) or hold gold for 5-1. Random rolling kills you.

References and further reading

Mechanics and shop odds

Strategy breakdowns

Mortdog econ philosophy

Augment tiers (live)

Related